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《THE NEXT
BIG ONES》
這本書主要目的在評估全球及世界各分區，未來數十年大地震發生的機率。作者利用新的地震活動度回歸公式，計算全球及主要地震帶，不同規模的大地震在特定時間段的發生機率。 這本書是作者五十多年來，為了減輕地震災害，致力於地球物理學及地震學的研究和教育，所積累的具體成果。作者希望讀者發現本書使用的研究方法，有助於減少災難性地震造成的傷亡及破壞。
The
primary purpose of this book is to present quantitative forecasting of
the mid-term probability of large earthquakes both globally and over
various regions of the world. The author used the novel seismic
activity regression formula to calculate the probability of an
earthquake, in the global and major seismic zones, with any given
magnitude at any given time since the most recent earthquake of the same
magnitude. This book is the author's 50+ years accumulation of
achievements in researching and teaching geophysics and seismology for
mitigation of earthquake disasters. The author hopes that those after
him will find the methodology in this book to be helpful in limiting the
death and destruction caused by earthquakes of catastrophic magnitude. |